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A global surge in AI chip demand is tightening supply across the memory market, with manufacturers diverting production capacity to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) — fueling what analysts are calling “chipflation.” Prices for DRAM and NAND flash used in PCs, servers, and smartphones are rising sharply as capacity shifts toward HBM.

According to a Reuters report last weekend, some of Samsung Electronics’ memory chips have surged as much as 60 percent in price since September. The squeeze is spreading industry-wide: TSMC, which fabricates application processors for Apple’s iPhone and Qualcomm’s Galaxy chips, as well as CPUs and GPUs for AMD and NVIDIA, has also raised its prices.

The ripple effect is hitting hardware manufacturers. On Monday, Morgan Stanley downgraded Dell Technologies two notches from “overweight” to “underweight,” citing pressure from rising DRAM and NAND costs. Dell warned its memory procurement rate could fall to 40 percent, raising concerns over supply delays. Dell shares tumbled 8.43 percent, while HP fell 6.7 percent on the same day.

TrendForce projects that rising memory prices will push up overall electronics prices and dampen consumer demand. Smartphone component costs are expected to climb 5–7 percent next year, much of which will be passed on to consumers, while laptop retail prices may increase 5–15 percent. The firm forecasts global smartphone output in 2026 will fall 2 percent, and laptop output 2.4 percent compared with this year, with low-margin budget phones taking the hardest hit.

Analysts also warn of a boom-bust cycle: surging memory prices could eventually erode demand, triggering another sharp price correction.

In China, smartphone makers are already scrambling to secure supplies. Tech outlet 36Kr reported that “what matters now is not demand from phone makers but how much stock Samsung and SK hynix can allocate.” SMIC, China’s largest foundry, told investors that concerns over memory availability next year are already leading some clients to reduce chip orders.

Meanwhile, major tech giants such as Apple have reportedly locked in year-long memory supply contracts, insulating them from the shortage.

The crisis could create opportunities for smaller and Chinese memory producers, including YMTC (Yangtze Memory Technologies Co.), which has begun building a third NAND flash plant. According to Omdia, YMTC’s capital spending this year accounts for about 20 percent of global NAND investment, and the firm is projected to become the world’s No. 4 NAND producer within two years.

With Samsung and SK hynix limiting capacity expansions, experts say market share could tilt toward China.

“Unless Korean firms expand output, Chinese memory makers will inevitably fill the gap,” said one industry insider. “Beijing is likely to roll out subsidies again, strengthening domestic chipmakers.”

Korea’s top two players still have deep footprints in China — Samsung Electronics produces NAND flash in Xi’an, accounting for half its total NAND output, while SK hynix makes DRAM in Wuxi, which represents about 40 percent of its DRAM production. Analysts say these Chinese fabs will play an increasingly critical role in maintaining Korea’s market position amid the growing geopolitical and supply-chain shifts.